Sundram Fasteners Limited (SUNDRMFAST) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Ladies and gentlemen, good day, and welcome to the Q3 FY '25 Earnings Conference Call of Sundram Fasteners, hosted by Avendus Spark. [Operator Instructions] Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Mukesh Saraf from Avendus Spark. Thank you, and over to you, Mr. Saraf.

Thank you, Michelle. Good morning. Mukesh Saraf here from Avendus Spark. Appreciate everybody logging in. From the management team, I'm pleased to host Mr. Dilip Kumar, CFO; Mr. S. Bharathan, EVP, Marketing; and Mr. S. Ganesh (sic) [ Mr. R. Ganesh ], VP, Finance and Projects. We'll start with brief opening remarks from Mr. Dilip and followed up with the Q&A. Over to you, Dilip, sir.

Yes. Good morning, and I welcome all the participants for a discussion on Sundram Fasteners Q3 results and the 9-month period. Just by way of clarification, we did not have conference calls the last 2 occasions. It is not for any other reason, except that there were 2 investor conferences, which coincided with the results. Since we were meeting all the analysts in those conferences, we did not have for not for any other reason, but we have taken the feedback and we will hold these calls consistently or constantly irrespective of the conferences. And just to get down to the numbers, we've had a quiet Q3. The domestic market, the industry has had a moderate performance and we have had performance in line with that. And the silver lining for us has been the export segment. Export has done reasonably well in the quarter, which has given us the growth. One of the things which had a surprise impact was the exchange, which sharply moved in the month of December. The rupee had a weakness. Not only rupee weakened, also European currencies weakened and which were very strong in the previous quarter and some of our receivables in euro and GBP were mark-to-market at much higher levels. So, they had to be re-indexed. Also the currency derivatives where we have taken some hedges again had a mark-to-market under the accounting standards. And all of that will get reversed. It's notional. Will get reversed in the subsequent quarter. So that had an impact partly on the profit. The major elements, raw materials have been stable and we have experienced about 2% to 3% drop in the procurement levels. When I say procurement levels, I mean the procurement rates. And -- but this quarter, the product mix had moved slightly against us and where either the realization of the parts are lower or the RM content are higher. And that has had an impact on the material or the gross margin. And moving on, the other major element was power cost. As you know, in all state governments now every year revise the power costs, the fixed element and also the tariff. Also, all the power which you procure under the group captive scheme get revised because the open access charges are indexed to this tariff. So, this has had an impact. And on revenues of INR 1,256 crores total revenue, we've had a contribution of about 26% and EBITDA at 16.1% compared to nearly 17% for the 9-month period. There are no surprise elements in the fixed costs. They have been consistent in line with the previous quarters. Our borrowings have moved up. This is because we have incurred capital expenditure, nearly INR 300 crores and there has also been buildup in the inventory and in anticipation of a strong Q4 because these are based on customer schedules and forecast. And as you know, Q3 is traditionally a weak quarter because -- especially for the exports and we have experienced that. And so the inventory buildup and the receivables have pushed up the borrowings, which is reflecting in the slightly higher interest costs. And based on assessments on tax positions, we've had a favorable tax assessments and the provision for taxation has been lower. So, we finished the quarter at INR 120 crores compared to INR 116 crores for the corresponding quarter. Now moving on to the 9-month period, we have registered revenues of INR 3,855 crores compared to -- sorry, INR 3,869 crores total revenue compared to INR 3,658 crores and though it reflects about 6% growth, within this, the exports have moved sharply from INR 1,024 crores to INR 1,174 crores, registering a 15% growth. And in -- we have grown in volume terms, in dollar terms and rupee depreciation has also helped, but significantly, we've grown in dollar terms. And the EBITDA, as explained, has come in at 16.8% for the 9-month period. After adjusting for interest and depreciation, profit after tax is INR 382 crores, which is again a 10% growth compared to the corresponding 9-month period. So, this is a story on the stand-alone performance. On the consolidated performance, again, our domestic subsidiaries have done reasonably well. We've got a price increase and a lot of efficiencies in operational efficiencies have improved the bottom line. And while U.K. subsidiary, after the pent-up demand after the COVID got absorbed and released into the system, the high interest rates and inflation and the ongoing Russian-Ukraine conflict have impacted the market. And while the top line has come down, but we've been able to maintain, again, due to operational efficiencies, the profits. And China continues to face challenges, the domestic economy and we hear that Q4 was sort of better and the fundamental structural challenges remain in China. But one of the challenges which auto component manufacturers typically face is a stiff competition and continuous pricing pressure from customers, which we have been able to weather this quarter. And again, thanks to tight cost control, we have been able to maintain profits. And just on the numbers, the 9 months -- I mean, for the quarter, we have registered INR 1,444 crores with a profit after tax of INR 130 crores. The corresponding 9-month number is INR 4,445 crores and profit after tax is at INR 417 crores. And with this, now I will throw the floor open for questions. And the -- I must say that we are reasonably optimistic about the performance of the coming quarter and all the hard work, I'm sure will pay off. We have the inventory built up in our depots and overseas warehouses and we expect good customer pull and things are looking better. With this, I request the participants to ask their questions. Thank you.

Thank you very much. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Rushab Shah from BugleRock PMS.

My first question is in the fasteners business, could you help us out what is the most important thing to look out in your fasteners business? And why Sundram Fasteners moat cannot be breached? What advantages do you have against your customers?

I think with respect to the fasteners business, we have been in this line of business for almost 60 years and the relationship with the customers are good and strong. And at the same time, the quality levels and we look ahead and work with the customer in terms of understanding their requirements, whether it is for their ICE application, EV or the hybrid. So, we work along with the customer and support them with respect to either building up capacity or participating in the new programs tools. And the significant point is our strong tool library. I think in terms of SKUs, if you look at for fasteners, we should be handling varieties of, say, more than 10,000 numbers. So, the strong tool library comes in handy to support whatever the customer wants. And today, we are supporting from as minimal size as M3 to M56, and we are also looking for higher range of fasteners. So the range, the market, the segment what we serve, I think that stands in good advantage for Sundram Fasteners compared to competition.

Just a follow-up on that one. Only a customer would change from Sundram Fasteners is just because the product quality gets changed or better services competitor might be offering?

See, it could be on account of customer looking for risk mitigation strategy, assuming he is sourcing 100% from Sundram Fasteners on say either a standard product or a special product, maybe post-COVID, I think customers have been looking for risk mitigation strategy, whether at all they are importing or even whether they are sourcing within the country. I think that could also play. And in terms of entry level of standard products, the competition would always come up with a bit lower prices. And being seniors in the industry, we always -- in terms of the price pressures, we don't give in. That is how I would put it.

Okay. My next question is, just to go on the risk mitigation strategy. What would market share do we command across our product portfolio, if you could give us your separate market share? And also what is the market share related to the PV and CV segments?

Yes. I think with respect to the market share across our product segment, if you look at in terms of fasteners, I think we are #1 in the Indian market, I think with a market share of, say, close to 40% to 45%. That is the market share which we would be commanding today. And we have competition in the form of either Sterling Tools or Deepak Fasteners or Right Tight Fasteners. So, each of the product segments, we have competition as such. And with respect to other product segments, I would say either we will be at #2 level competing with others. And as regards the market size with respect to the OEMs, typically if you look at Sundram's revenue, roughly 70% of the revenue comes from the domestic market and 30% from the exports. And out of that 70% between 55% to 58% would come from the OEM segment. And there, our exposure in terms of CV between M and HCV, LCV would be close to 35% to 40% and the [ battery ] car would be about 40%. So, this is a broad number.

Okay. And my next question is, what is your vision for Sundram Fasteners in the next 5 years? Where do you think Sundram Fasteners will be?

In all our product portfolios, I think as my colleague explained just a while ago, we work for retaining the market leader position, whether it is on the fastener side, whether it is on the pumps or the sintered and other product portfolio. The second is we have forayed into spaces like aerospace and defense and mainly because to upgrade ourselves in terms of quality and global competitiveness. And I think that will hold us in good stead to retain the market leadership, enhance on it and proceed further. Actually, Sundram Fasteners, as you know, has been constantly looking at diversification of its portfolio too. And on that front also, I think we are reasonably proceeding on fast track so that we retain the diversity and mitigate our risks. As I was explaining to you, all the OEMs today post-COVID have gone in for a dual sourcing strategy minimum to mitigate the risks and even export customers have onshoring activities going on. So, to mitigate ourselves against that risk, we are diversifying our portfolio as well so that overall, we can retain the leadership and proceed.

Okay. Just last question from my side.

I'm sorry to interrupt. I may request you to rejoin the queue.

Yes, sorry. Yes. Okay.

Thank you so much. We'll take the next question from the line of Sonal Gupta from HSBC Mutual Fund.

Just wanted to understand, right, like in terms of like we had these wind-related orders where we had invested and I think they were supposed to start and ramp up more in the second half. And also, I think the EV-related orders was expected to start probably in Q3, Q4. So, could you give us an update on what's happening there? Have those ramped up or those ramping up?

Yes. I think with respect to the wind related, the capacities are in place and we have come to the 100% utilization of the installed resources and we have seen an uptick in the revenue, thereby pushing up our auto, non-auto ratio also moving from 60-40 to now we are looking at 55% to 35%. So that way the wind energy project is on and we are seeing the benefit. And we are also in discussions with the customers for ramping up for the next phase. And coming to the EV order, as we mentioned, yes, the projects are on stream, whatever investments required for that has been completed both at Mahindra World City and Sri City. And customers have indicated their schedules starting from current Q1. And I think it's on stream from our side with respect to the new product development, its validation. And hopefully, by Q2, we will get better visibility in terms of pull from the customer end. With respect to required stock building at the customer end in the warehouses, the project and work is already on and completed.

Got it. Just a clarification. Q1, you mean the Jan to March quarter or the Q1 of fiscal '26?

No, no. Q1 of Jan to March.

March quarter?

Already the new quarter started. I think we'll get better visibility going forward in Q2.

Got it. Got it. And just a follow-up, right? Like wind, like you said, we've already reached 100% utilization. But if I look at your dollar term export revenue growth, it's only about 5% year-on-year. So I mean, like despite the wind orders coming in, which I think would have sort of helped, we're seeing a very muted growth on the export side. So, are there other segments like the Class 8 and trucks, which are sort of growing negatively? I mean, if you could sort of indicate what's happening in the export space?

Just to clarify, this wind segment, while it may have ultimate end use is exported, but it is a rupee-denominated business for us. That's the first clarification.

Okay.

The second is the exports have grown from INR 1,024 crores to INR 1,174 crores, which is about 15%. And in dollar terms, our math suggests that we have grown by 13% and the balance is because of rupee weakness. And so I just wanted to clarify that part.

Got it. So basically, the domestic is where we are still seeing -- I mean, obviously, we understand the auto industry is also muted. So that's why the overall domestic growth sort of is sort of slower, right?

Correct. Correct. You're right. Absolutely.

And just the last thing, on the FX side, right, like as the INR depreciates or if it depreciates further, should that help us in terms of our profitability?

100%, because the exports of Sundram Fasteners, depending on how we close, could be between $180 million to $200 million as a broad range and maybe closer to $200 million. And our imports are not significant, except in a year where we import for capital expenditure requirements. So, whenever there is a rupee depreciation, we tend to benefit.

Okay. So, we -- I mean, it's not like a pass-through to the customer?

No. It's not a pass-through.

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Sahil Rohit Sanghvi from Monarch Networth Capital.

My first question is regarding the EV orders, we have seen a change of the government in the U.S. and Trump also was alluding to -- President Trump was alluding to freezing the green subsidies. Have you seen any kind of sort of a push down or any kind of delay or cancellations in orders related to the EV?

See, for some time now, there has been a pushback on the EV side, even last quarter and the quarter before that, there was a pushback and our OEM customers, while initially indicated good numbers, there were some delays in the platform getting started. But last quarter, as expected, we expected this H2 of this year, that is the running quarter, running half to start with those businesses. And as expected, the businesses have commenced with our major OEMs. However, the quantum and the volumes indicated have not certified as yet. So, there is a delay there. But as you say, things are hazy as such. But definitely, every OEM has assured that their platforms are on. They are not going back on that. It's only a matter of time before it comes to full fruition.

I think what we had guided was that maybe first year, we could see something like INR 200 crores, INR 250 crores. And then the next year onwards, we can ramp up to INR 450 crores, INR 500 crores. Would that be a ramp-up trajectory still? Or should we not put that any estimates, should we narrow down the estimates?

Hazarding an estimate would be too premature now. But definitely, there will have to be some recalibration to that.

Right. And regarding the other areas of demand when it comes to the non-EV side, how are the export market looking? If you can give us a general understanding?

Yes. See, as far as the export, as you know, the European market has had a very bad year. And the situation is still tough. But I think with some light at the end of the tunnel for the Israel-Gaza conflict, I think things are going to settle down and there is also hope on the Russian war front. So, Europe is expected to pick up maybe towards the second half of the year. Coming to the North American market, yes, this year is supposed to be muted with also a 2% GDP expected in the American economy and with the Trump there's a change in the government, people are a bit, keeping their fingers crossed in terms of tariffs on vehicles and things like that. So, the major market like commercial trucks, Class 8 or Class 7 trucks are expected to go a bit down. In fact, last year, we were slightly better than expectation. But this year, it's supposed to go down. And it's likely to pick up in the second half of the year, that is post June, wherein EPA norms of '27 is going to kick in. So, from the second half of this year and for a major portion of the next year, that is 2026, there is expected to be pre-buy. And so the market will start looking up in '26 and followed by a drop in '27. And again, there is another norm for the greenhouse gas emissions coming in 2030. And till then, situation will be up and down. But '25, second half and '26 are expected to be good.

Right. And my last question is if you can give us the wind energy-related revenues maybe as a percentage of total revenues or yes, if something like that could be given.

I think with respect to wind energy, probably where we started off at say sub-5% with respect to wind as a percentage to overall revenue, I think we should see inching towards higher double digits as the current volumes, whatever we have planned that has already picked up and with the Phase 2 coming in. So, we are seeing positive numbers with respect to the wind energy business.

Currently, we are at around 5%. Is that the right number?

Currently, we would be between 5% to 6% and probably we will take it up to higher single digit, as I mentioned.

The next question is from the line of Mukesh Saraf from Avendus Spark.

Yes. I just thought I'll ask a few questions as we [ move up further ]. Firstly, on the domestic revenue, we saw for a period of few years that we have been continuously outperforming the domestic revenue. But since last year, domestic revenue growth has kind of come off. We do understand the industry is not as good, but as a track record, we usually outperform this. So, could you kind of help us understand, this time around, we are not outperforming the domestic industry? And then what are we doing here to kind of improve this?

See, as far as the domestic industry is concerned, let me just talk about the sub-segments of the industry.

Sorry. So, my question is not about the...

On the commercial vehicle side, there was a lot of headwinds and there was a lack of infrastructure spending and elections and all that and heavy rainfall in various parts of the country and also the activity was reduced. As such, the commercial vehicle industry on the production front saw an 8% dip compared to the last year. And it was our estimate that going forward for the second half, Q3 as far and Q4, we estimated the commercial vehicle segment to pick up 2 to 3 percentage points from the dip it was. And true to our prediction, it is now at around 6%, a 2 percentage points have been picked up in the commercial vehicle side. Q3 has been slightly better. And Q4 is expected to continue the same way. And we expect in Q4, and there are some indications from OEMs that irrespective of the demand, the production will continue for the third quarter, fourth quarter. So, on the commercial vehicle side, we see a slight pickup compared to the H1 of the year and the industry will close at around 2 to 3 points better than the first half of the year. And on the passenger car side, as you know, again, the entry-level cars and the sedans have had a big drop in terms of, close to 15%, 16%. And the SUVs are dominating the segment today with 65% of the industry segment. So, there is a premiumization that's happening in the segment like many other segments. And in the second half of this year, again, we predicted some improvement. We assessed some improvements have happened. Luckily, in Q3 during the festive season and the marriage season now, there was some improvement in terms of sales. While the production levels have not gone significantly up on the commercial passenger car segment, the sales has gone up. In fact, for Q3, I would say about 100,000 cars were sold more than the production. So, bringing down the inventory in the pipeline by about 5 to 6 days, which is some good news for the dealerships. So -- and the Q4 is also expected to continue the same way. Coming to the tractor segment, again, H1 had a lot of issues in terms of low demand. But with a good Kharif season and now Rabi sowing season being high and also the Rabi crop expected to be good, the tractor demand has also slightly picked up in the third quarter and the momentum is likely to continue in the fourth quarter.

Right. So, my question was also regarding what Sundram Fasteners is doing to outperform the underlying industry because in the past, we have done this consistently for a few years. But say, in the last couple of years, we are probably not seeing that outperformance. You mentioned in terms of passenger vehicles, SUVs are doing better, example. So, are you kind of looking to get larger share of wallet in the SUV space? How are we placed there? So, some color on this would really help.

Yes, precisely. In fact, see, there are 2 significant aspects that are going into our efforts. One is on improving our share of the business with the customers, which is happening on various fronts. And the second is more focus on the new products and new product development. And on both these factors, we are seeing significant success. And from our front, like what's happening in the industry, we are also looking at premiumization in terms of our products of the various verticals of Sundram Fasteners, we are looking at premiumization like stainless steel fasteners and pumps -- improved pumps with higher efficiencies, then sintered parts with 2 material, differential material. All these are our efforts and we serve the industry with better options to proceed.

Right. So that's really good to hear. So, when can we start seeing some of these efforts show up in the numbers because this quarter also, we are flattish on domestic, in line with the industry. So, any sense there on when we can start seeing the outperformance vis-a-vis the underlying industry begin for us on the domestic side?

See, as you know, the auto industry goes through a rigorous process of new product development in terms of validation and things like that. So, for any part from the development -- go ahead for the development to come to fruition, depending on the nature of the part would take anywhere between 18 to 24 months. However, all these activities have started a bit early. And so I think post half of the next year, we should be able to see things coming to the...

Right. So, second half of FY '26, we should start seeing some efforts -- some numbers show up?

Correct.

Okay. Great. Great. And secondly, again, on the domestic business, we've off-late seen a lot of EV launches in the domestic side, Mahindra, Maruti, Hyundai, all of them have launched their EVs. And because we obviously have some of these transmission components like the shafts and differentials, et cetera, how are we placed with respect to supplies domestically?

We are very much in the game there and we are engaging with all the customers on the EV side. Our estimate and assessment is that, while on the passenger car segment, it might be EV and hybrids and on the commercial vehicle segment, it might be EV and hydrogen. This is how we estimate the market to pan out.

Right. So, we will be part of the suppliers for these EVs that are being launched right now and obviously getting into production now?

Yes, without doubt.

Any guidance you can give on what could be the value of these orders that we can get? How much this can kind of help us in the domestic revenue, just the EV for EVs in India?

As Mr. Bharathan had explained, I think it's in the development and approval stage. I think it will be too premature to comment on the volumes or numbers that we are looking for this portfolio.

Got it. Understood. And on the margins, Mr. Dilip had mentioned about the mark-to-market hit. Can you tell us in 3Q, what was that number? And in which line item? Is it in other expenses, for example?

No, it is booked as part of other income and in terms of line items. And the incentives on MTM as the export realizations happen in Q4 and these derivative positions obviously have not -- just a simple forward contracts and this would get reversed as a P&L credit, back into P&L.

Okay. So that's the reason other income is low. Basically, it's netted off in the other income. Okay.

Correct.

Right. Understood. And probably some -- last question from my side is on the capacity. I mean we have also -- we have further done some CapEx now you mentioned. But obviously, we have built in a lot of capacity in the last few years for these EV products as well as for the other products. So, how are we seeing current capacity utilization? And is there any plans to kind of push back or reduce some of these CapEx now if the utilization rates are low because seeing the CapEx number, I think it seems like revenues still haven't come up for a lot of CapEx that we have already done.

With respect to the capacity utilization on our existing businesses, it hovers between 60% to 65%. And on the new CapEx, whatever we have invested, so it also addresses the requirements of customers starting calendar year 2025 as well as 2026. So, we should be seeing better numbers of the new investments in, say, '26. '25 would start off in a small way. And in terms of capacity addition for the existing business, we are also looking to garner either higher market share or be ahead of the market where customers keep pushing for higher capacity. So that's the strategy behind creation of these capacities.

Right. Understood. Thank you. I think we have other participants in the queue.

We'll take the next question from the line of Himanshu Singh from Baroda BNP Paribas Mutual Fund.

Can you indicate what is the growth rate for the fastener -- volume growth for the fastener segment for us this quarter? And we mentioned that there was some mix impact, which impacted us on the revenue side. Will that continue in the coming quarter as well?

So, on the mix side, we don't expect that. These things happen at least in a year or 4 quarters, 1 or 2 quarters, these things tend to happen. But I don't expect that to happen in the fourth quarter. On the growth in the volume terms, probably we've been around 3% in the domestic market overall with fasteners being the dominant share of that.

Okay. And in terms of wind business, is it a domestic order or is it export order?

We are serving the domestic market, but the customer aggregates and then ships it to wherever location he is executing the project. So for us, the revenue is in terms of rupee. So, we serve basically the domestic market. And we are also working for getting into export customer base as well.

Okay. And in terms of outlook, how do you see your FY '26 performance on the top line and on the margin side? Can you give any visibility what are the factors which should help positively both on the margin and revenue side or have any concerns?

As far as the industry outlook is concerned for FY '26, the domestic segment is expected to grow at about 5% to 6% consolidated. I'm talking about all the segments put together. It will be sort of a middle single-digit. And as far as the export is concerned, the growth will be muted. In fact, it will be less than what this year looks like. And as far as the retail is concerned, I think we are on par with the industry. This year, you might have noticed that in the first half of the year, about INR 47,000-odd crores was the retail exports -- retail aftermarket sales of component industry at a 5% growth. We are slightly ahead of that. So that will continue for the next year too.

Just by way of an additional input, while the market may be a bit moderate in the export segment and since we had announced a big order, which we had received for electric vehicles and the customer indications, though we have recalibrated a bit, but the schedules are positive and the inventory buildup is happening. So, while markets overall may be a bit moderate, but we expect to outperform as far as exports are concerned. And taking into account the rupee weakness and additional exports volume in FY '26 and our EBITDA trajectory could be between 17% to 18%.

The next question is from the line of Sahil Rohit Sanghvi from Monarch Networth Capital.

You had guided for USD 200 million export trajectory. Would that still be possible?

Sorry, your voice...

Can you repeat that question? Your voice broke out.

Is this better?

Yes. Please repeat your question.

Yes. So, I said that in the previous calls, you have guided for a USD 200 million export trajectory for this year, FY '25. Would that still be a realistic possibility? Or we might...

[Technical Difficulty] is realistic. So, somewhere between $180 million to $200 million, definitely, it looks like we will achieve.

And would that meaningfully scale up by, say, 15% next year, I mean, because of the new EV orders and the other things?

That is our expectation.

The next question is from the line of Rushab Shah from BugleRock PMS.

Could you name your top 5 customers? And then what percentage do they contribute to your revenue?

I think with respect to the key customers, in India, we serve the Tata Motors, Maruti, Mahindra and with respect to overseas customers, our export customers is falling between, some in General Motors. So, the customer concentration, if you look at it would be in the range of 35% for this top 5. And one significant portion of the customer base is we don't have a large exposure to any individual customer. So that way we are mitigated with respect to the participation of Sundram Fasteners either in terms of segment or in terms of customer or in terms of geography.

Okay. And next question is one of your competitors had entered into MCUs. So, are we also...

Entered into...

One of your competitors had entered into MCUs. Are you also planning to enter that segment?

See, as such, we believe in concentrating on our core competencies. And we -- while we will upgrade our products to go in for [ electro suite ], the electric vehicles like e-transmission, e-axles and e-transmission and electric water pumps, things like that. I don't think we will get into electronics as such in the near future.

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, as there are no further questions, I would now like to hand the conference back to the management for closing comments. Over to you.

So thanks, everyone, for joining this conference call. We really appreciate it. If you have any questions which are left unanswered, if you want any clarification, please do not hesitate to reach out to us because if any journalist or anyone picking up from this transcription, please reach out to us so that we are not quoted out of context. And like I said at the beginning, we are looking -- we are cautiously optimistic about Q4. And we'll have another call in Q4 when we hold our Q4 conference call. Thank you so much.

Thank you very much. Thank you, members of the management. Thank you.

Thank you.

Ladies and gentlemen, on behalf of Avendus Spark, that concludes this conference. We thank you for joining us and you may now disconnect your lines. Thank you.